Saturday, July 14, 2012

Trouble with Tehran


Iranian nuclear programs have been a polarizing issue in the region for years.  Tensions between Tehran and Israel have continued to escalate overtime as the Iranian government has developed a nuclear program. Recently intelligence organizations have confirmed that suspected nuclear development sites are being moved to underground mountainside facilities. These underground facilities are both impervious to surveillance and any known bomb in the US Military arsenal.  Iran continues to maintain that no arms development is taking place and that nuclear power facilities are the objective.
                The recent militarization of these sites though seems to suggest otherwise. In light of this Israel has warned Iran, that any further development will be met with swift retribution by any means necessary. 
                Escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran could not have come at a worse time for the western world.  With their militaries committed in the countries of Afghanistan and withdrawing from Iraq, the west lacks both the power and the will to wage a serious war against Iran. Without western aid though, Israel cannot hope to defeat the Iranian military and protect her own borders. In this scenario Israel would be forced to utilize her nuclear arsenal.
                Aside from the political nightmare that would ensue following the first use of an atomic weapon since world war two, the aftereffects would be disastrous.  Analysts have confirmed that the detonation of a modern nuclear weapon in Tehran would cause major international damage.
                After the detonation of a nuclear weapon in Tehran, a cloud of radioactive debris and dust would be kicked up into the atmosphere. Once airborne the cloud would travel across borders affecting neighboring countries but, could travel as far as Pakistan and Russia.  Not only would this cloud put the lives of countless citizens at risk but, the cloud would affect American troops in Afghanistan.
                With this in mind it seems even harder to ignore Israel in the event of war.  The price of nuclear war in the region is just too high. Even so, it seems unlikely that the United States would support a conventional war after the Iraqi experience.
                For a decade now, American troops have fought to subdue Iraqi rebels and begin the process of nation building. The Iraq war has placed the States into financial peril, worsened international relations, and broken popular support for war.
                Iran is a nation that dwarfs Iraq in population and military capability. Population control alone would stretch the American Military to their limits. With the task of controlling roughly seventy million Iranians and defeating a trained military, support for military intervention is scarce.  Without American military support though, Israel is only left with the nuclear option.  No matter how you cut it, the West is in an unfortunate situation. We cannot risk the threat of nuclear war but without strong international support there can be no hope of a conventional victory.
                Should the world stand by and accept a nuclear Iran? Can we afford to leave the Israeli government in their time of need? More importantly, can we allow nuclear weapons to be used or do we have a duty to prevent that catastrophe no matter the cost?

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